A US outbreak of Avian Flu may kill as many as 1.9 million Americans and hospitalize 9.9 million. But is President Bush's plan on target to protect the country if a pandemic did occur here?

Some health officials believe this outbreak could be as bad as what happened with the 1918 flu. But if we knew about this current H5N1 flu bug seven years ago, and only now we're getting our protection plan going, is this an example of too little too late?

Dr. Irwin Redliner, Associate Dean of the Mailman School of Public Health, says, “The president's plan was exactly the correct rhetoric it's just too late and not enough and we're really going to have to make some tracks here to make up for lost time."

There's a ticking clock—maybe--on a possible bird flu epidemic.
It could be years before we see an outbreak. But that's how much time we need to get back on track.

“I'm talking about the hospitals not being prepared, that's the third backup. There are many steps we need to be worrying about to make sure we have enough ventilators with a pandemic flu in our hospitals," says Dr. Redliner.

But prevention in the form of the proposed quarantines the president is raising eyebrows.

"The risk of quarantine is that it gives people a false sense of security, that these diseases are under a lock and key and won't spread. It forces everything underground and people are traveling and moving the virus around and we're sitting back and saying we've dong our job."

Dr. Stephen Baum, an infectious disease specialist at Beth Israel Medical Center, says prevention abroad before it happens is important. “Treatment is sometimes good and sometimes not good and in a case of influenza I don't think we have wonderful potential treatments for this disease, so prevention is really key.”

What about those who don’t have jobs, or do have them but don’t have health insurance?

“Those people when they get the early symptoms, when we want them to be detected in the beginning of a disease process, not when they're so sick that they have to be admitted to an ICU, those people who don't have access to the healthcare system right now in the country.”

And in a system where there needs to be top tier communication, clearly, there is not one between all towns and states. “I think we're capable of doing that but it's going to take a heck of a lot more than 500 million dollars that the president would propose to cover this entire waterfront across the United States,” says Dr. Redliner.

Many experts say they don't expect the virus to mutate into a form capable of human to human transmission in the next year or two, if ever.

Still, any preparation for a pandemic is welcome by public health experts, and it may, in fact, help boost U.S. efforts against the annual flu.

Related Stories

 - HOMOCYSTEINE AND FRACTURE RISK
 - Heart Failure Device
 - Yoga Is a Possible Treatment For Depression